Been mulling over this article at WND about just why we haven’t and won’t deter Iran from pursuing their nuclear ambition.
“Neither state seemed in the least bit deterred, although North Korea, under considerable pressure from China, finally entered into multilateral negotiations with as yet unknown results.
The administration, however, did not take or even speak of military action against these states in part because of preoccupation with Iraq and in part because military action against Iran, and especially North Korea, would entail far greater difficulties and risks than action against Iraq.”
See, Iraq was a far easier target, half the size and easier logistically.
Authored by Jeffrey Record, the report said the Bush administration chose to attack Baghdad because of the U.S. assessment that the Iraqi military would quickly collapse.
“All of this suggests that the value of threatened or actual preventive military action may be limited to target states, like Iraq, that are incapable of either offering effective military resistance or placing at risk assets highly valued by the United States and its allies. States capable of doing so may indeed be deterring the United States rather than being deterred.”
Interesting thought.
Record, a professor at the War College in Montgomery, Ala. and a former Senate aide, said the U.S. military presence in Iraq has severely limited options for another U.S. campaign to prevent the emergence of a nuclear power.
Now this is most troubling. Basically, this gloomy assessment of our capabitities is that we can’t do it. We don’t have the forces, well unless we use the nuclear option ourselves. And we aren’t going there unless we are nuked. Imagine the outcry if we did. Mind you, it majorly insults our military capability, the implication being we can only win a war against some tiny third rate country. I think we are better than that.
Now this is presupposing Bush gets reelected. If he doesn’t, well they have nothing to fear from the U.S.. The Democrats won’t do anything, Iran will have free reign. And to be sure, Iran doesn’t want Bush reelected, they have been up to stuff. From Allah’s source material
Over the past fortnight two highly important political developments have been going on in the Middle East. Syria has been desperately attempting to reopen peace talks with Israel, while on the other side of the Fertile Crescent, the conservatives in Iran have initiated a showdown with the reformist elements.
Not to infer they haven’t already. Iran also has had it’s sticky fingers in Iraq. As if anyone hasn’t heard about the Shiite’s desires for an Islamic government, they are up to far worse.
It had become clear the US was not going to be thrown out of Iraq, and that the Iraqi Shiites were unlikely to open a second guerrilla front against US forces even if Iran had given the word, since their self interest was to have the US turn over power to them as the democratically elected majority, not have the US pushed prematurely out. Moreover the Iranian interest was to see the Shiites become the dominant political force in Baghdad.
Starting to get the picture. And to that aim, they have been ensuring there is…
controlled chaos in Iraq, enough to enable them to get the maximum concessions from the US in return for ensuring Shiite quiet, but not enough to make them go home prematurely, before the Shiites have gained control.
Note their strategy.
The main targets over the past 2-3 weeks have not been Americans, but Iraqi intelligentsia, the backbone of an enlightened and traditional, but overall fairly secular middle class. This is precisely the class that wants to see US style democracy succeed, and is the one most inimical to seeing the Baathist dictatorship replaced by a Shiite one.
Then end goal, as previously stated…
to see Bush defeated. The thinking in Teheran is that a Democratic president would not have the stomach to go to war in order to save Iraq’s middle class. The result, snap elections won by the Shiites, the formation of a new anti-western Damascus-Baghdad-Teheran axis, armed with a large variety of lethal non conventional weapons.
The most interesting thing about the whole article is what Iran fears.
if the Iraqi WMD that have been hidden in the remote corners of the Syrian desert were to be discovered, thus vindicating Bush and all but assuring him of four more years.
As long as that doesn’t happen, Bush’s chances are not assured. So to keep the U.S. from meddling in Syria, distract them with a peace talks. Hey, it worked for Arafat. Don’t have to have peace, just stall things til after the election. The hope is that we don’t let them get away with taking over Iraq.
The current administration is not about to see a virulently anti-western conservative dominated Iran become the ultimate benefactor of the war. American blood was not shed in order to facilitate unprecedented Iranian hegemony over the region. If, in order to prevent such an outcome it becomes imperative to vindicate the Bush administration by proving estimates of Iraqi non-conventional capabilities were essentially correct, then an invasion of Syria cannot be ruled out. The pretext would be either proof of Syrian complicity in allowing Hezbollah to operate in Iraq, or allow Israel to initiate a war with Syria over its support of terrorism.
I just don’t see anyone here supporting an invasion of Syria especially if it helps Bush’s election chances, irregardless. There’s just too much animosity over the fact we went to war with Iraq over shaky intelligence. And too many people who stand to gain politically from proving Bush wrong, notwithstanding so was everyone else. Might see things heat up with Israel instead, letting it be the fall guy. The stakes are huge. If this doesn’t happen, expect to see…
the emergence of an Iranian dominated Damascus-Baghdad-Teheran axis, which would soon become a Islamic regional superpower that could, and probably would pose as much of a threat to the west as it would to Israel.
Especially in light of what I quoted regarding our in ability to deal with Iran, think about dealing with a superpower bent on our destruction. Ah the only option may be nuclear, unless….
we want to become a Muslim Caliphate.